Sam Harris on Joe Rogan Podcast 192

 

Joe Rogan: Jesus!

 

Sam Harris: Now would you be willing to bet. I’ll bet you..

 

Joe Rogan: It would have been thousands for me.

 

Sam Harris: Okay

 

Joe Rogan: And that would just be a guess.

 

Sam Harris: Okay, so that’s basically everyone’s guess. That is just.. There’s 365 days in a year. We got to get 2 people on the same day that’s gonna be a lot of people, right?

 

The truth is, and this is just a fact… that if you get 23 people in the room, you have crossed the 50% threshold so it’s more likely than not, that 2 of them have the same birthday.

 

Joe Rogan: That’s amazing.

 

Sam Harris: 23 people. Now the reason, now what’s crucial to understand is that, it’s.. it’s..  the crucial piece actually goes to.. this deflates so many conspiracy theories and other bad ideas, is that it’s absolutely crucial that we didn’t specify which birthday, right?

 

So it’s any 2 birthday. It’s any single birthday. Any 2 people and any single birthday.

 

Joe Rogan: 23 people. That’s amazing!

 

Sam Harris: And that makes it.. that makes it.. That changes the game entirely. But if I said, how many people do I need in a room to find one with my birthday. That changes it.

 

Joe Rogan: Right

 

Sam Harris: But any 2 people on any given birthday, it’s..

 

Joe Rogan: But if you with your birthday, that’s thousands. That would have to be thousands

 

Sam Harris: I don’t.. I don’t know what would that be.. But anyway,.. that’s.. so anyway

 

Brian Redban: January 1967

 

Sam Harris: Our intuitions are bad about probability and so, when you look at 9/11 truth stuff.

 

It’s so much about finding these little anomalies that strike people’s intuitively highly unlikely and in desperate need of explanation.

 

Whereas you can always look at.. anything you look at after the fact, can be described as a miracle. So I can say to you, what are the chances that, all of the wires and the objects on this desk would be exactly in this position on this day

 

Joe Rogan:  Well, isn’t that a creation for this argument.. The Evolution of the Eyeball. Like how it’s possible

 

Sam Harris: Well, yeah at least  there’s more to talk about there.

 

Joe Rogan: Yeah

 

Sam Harris: I mean you have to have the.. it is kinda inscrutable how this.. this stuff happens through uhm, genetic mutation and environmental pressure. But we can tell that story.

 

But this is just post-hoc after the fact I say, this is just inexplicable the wires are tangled exactly this way. If you were kinda randomly do this again, you’d never get them in this position.

 

Uhm, but of course, it’s completely meaningless. There’s not.. the wires have to be some way. They just happened to be this way. And I’m putting a

 

Joe Rogan: Miraculous

 

Sam Harris: a completely gratuitous burden on you to explain the fact that they’re just this way.

 

Joe Rogan: Right.

 

Sam Harris: And so in any situation, certainly situation as complicated as September 11th, you can see all this anomalies.

 

So the fact that.. how do you explain the fact that, uhm, you know in the day, the navy was running a fighter jet test and we had F16s that were out over the ocean.

 

Whatever the thing is, you know they only run that test, you know 2 days a year and they were running it that day, right. If it wasn’t that an anomaly, you would find some other anomaly.

 

Joe Rogan: Yeah

 

Sam Harris: You can alway–As long as you were picking up after the fact, you can always find something weird that’s in desperate need of explanation.

Joe Rogan: Have there been statistical.. Have there been studies that have proven statistics on people knowing that people are watching them? I’ve heard there’s been studies about

 

Sam Harris: People say.. if you had Rupert Sheldrake on here, he would say yes

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